The End of Active Management

A three year period (May 3 2004 - June 1 2007) of active management has come to an end as I am no longer permitted to trade. The total return after all fees, costs etc. is +530.05%. During this time every trade has been reported on this blog in near real-time in some 203 posts. Highlights included pyramiding the silver market during the big rally and then going short hours before the biggest fall in decades. I have been less active in the forex market even though I have had a very favorable record on the few trades I have made. On the equity side of things I have typically always been going against the prevailing grain like for example selling puts into panic. Psychologically it has been hard to sell just to see a stock continue (like Mastercard did last fall) or to place a limit order just to miss an incredible opportunity. Performance has been lacking from time to time when regular job have been taking too much of my time.

Final Allocations

Bought back LUMI as well as increased marginally in PARE. The latter literally exploded today as Carnegie upgraded the stock. This is despite lower oil prices.

I also bought back the short ES hedge. This position has clearly highlighted the problem with betting against the stock market drift.

Placing a Bet on Macau

Bought some MPEL today close to all time low for the stock which coincidence with the much awaited opening of Crown Macau. Macau experienced some 46% revenue growth year over year for the first quarter of this year. Melco is the only Macau pure play available and I think long term investors will be well awarded. TheStreet.com has some more in-depth coverage of the stock for the interested.

In other news; WFR will be added to the S&P 500. For the broad market I think it is very healthy to see some selling, I can't remember when I last saw a 17 point drop in the S&P futures. Google is a under-performer that is showing some strength.

Two Trades

Sold off LUPE and Vostok today as I am reassessing my holdings for the long term. Needless to say LUPE's performance has been lackluster.

One New Name

Participated in the Interactive Brokers Dutch auction IPO. I really like this stock as much as I like the company. Technology driven all the way from the top will keep the competitors behind. In fact in a sense Google-sque. Plus 4% for the first day must be regarded as modest.

I scale in to MEMC during the slaughter, it is now paying off. In this case JP Morgan represents the smart money adding the stock to the focus list during the panic.

Also notable today was Goldman Sachs run-up, approaching $230...

A Trade

Picked up some WFR today as the stock was down heavily after earnings that was slightly better than expected at least on the bottom line. As readers know I have had my eyes on this stock for a while. Q1 earnings was up about 100%, the stock is trading at an expected 2007 PE of 18.50 and has exposure to the hot solar power market. With a PEG under 1, this opportunity was to good to pass. The very smart James Altucher has done some interesting work on gap-down trades which further adds to the case.

A Hedge

Just sold the Jun S&P future at 1491.50 as going against the prevailing market sentiment has proven profitable in the past.

Oil is spiking on Nigeria, I am well positioned.