Thursday, December 22, 2005
PARE
We have seen a super rally in the stock the last few days. Stocks can be mispriced a long time, but not forever. Enjoying the ride.
Reading Tips
Malcom Gladwell's excellent article on Taleb and Niederhoffer from The New Yorker, 2002. Niederhoffer's web site Daily Speculations.
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
Oils
PARE is exploding today with a gain of more than 5%. The company says it will seek a listing on the main exchange in Stockholm. The stock is definitely worth buying on any weakness. Also news out relating to VOST. The ring-fence for Gazprom shares might be lifted very soon. The stock will then go from zero weight in MSCI Global Emerging Markets index to the highest weight in the index. The rest of the holdings in Stockholm are up to day as well.
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
Opportunities
Buying opportunities missed. The oils are up in Stockholm today. So is Google. Too bad. I don't complain though...
Monday, December 19, 2005
Divergence
Crude is down 1.5% or almost 1 dollar, however XOI is up, and above the 1000 mark. This kind of divergence will not hold much longer...
Action
Good action right here. Google is exploding up again, adding another $10 to the shares' price. Also the oil portfolio is very healthy. New ATH in VOST-SDB.ST, the chart looks more the Google than anything else. Crude is etching higher, but I would be careful adding to any position here, as I think the short term outlook is mixed.
Friday, December 16, 2005
Update
Crude is down very forcefully this yesterday (as it this last Friday). My oil stocks were up in Stockholm, which is quite remarkable. No doubt they will be down Monday unless the price correct up in early Asian electronic trading on Monday. No need to panic if you own the right names. Meanwhile GOOGLE is exploding up right here to ATH. We got news about AOL and then we had Nasdaq 100.
Correlation
Gold have been going up, together with Nikkei while the Yen having been going down. Seems like the correlation still holds, only the direction have been reversed.
Thursday, December 15, 2005
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
Movements
Yen is stronger by over 2% right now. My position is playing out perfectly, soon time to liquidate the position. Also, AAPL is cut by Bear Stearns and is trading lower by $3.50. Wish I still was short. Google and Crude holding nicely hear.
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Waiting Game
Pare is up over 8% today in Stockholm. The market is correcting it up towards fundamentals. Market efficient? Google is up another 4 bucks today. This column by Cramer summarize the situation there. Now everyone is waiting for the Fed.
Monday, December 12, 2005
Market, GOOG
Oil having a very good day here on the cold weather. USD-index is finally turning weaker, holding on to my long YEN position. Adding to GOOG as the stock is upgraded by CSFB, and added to Nasdaq-100 end of this week. Don't forget this is the strongest quarter of the year, and we are already mid December. Next I believe we will see S&P 500. Will add to position on any dips.
Gold, Oil
Gold have another fantastic day, breaking trough $540. Oil is back up after the weak session on Friday.
C2SAT
Sold the stock this morning in Stockholm as the news came out. The stock is up another 5% today.
Thursday, December 08, 2005
Holdings
An observation: all 8 holdings are going the right way today. Plus AAPL that I covered. NQ roughly unchanged. Not bad, I like these days.
Market Update
Crude is bouncing back today after yesterday's numbers. Good for my big oil exposure. Gold is going higher every day it seems like. Yen is finally stronger against the greenback. Holding on to the position. Cover on AAPL as the stock is down today, although not much. Should have bought back right in the opening. Looking to increase my GOOG exposure any day the stock is down around the $400 mark. If only it would be....
Monday, December 05, 2005
Friday, December 02, 2005
Gains, more gains and a few trades
Everything going up it seems like, including gold and USD. Taking a little bet on a quick reversal I shorted AAPL and USD against YEN late Friday. The relative strength havn't been this strong for over 20 years on the weekly chart for USD-YEN. AAPL seems very strong here, and as always it is risky to go againt the trend.
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Portfolio Gains
Lupe +3.03%, Pare 9.03%, Vost +3.35%, Goog +1.63%, TYKS unchanged after a strong day yesterday.
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Inventories
Lower than expected, crude spiked up. Bought some Lupe. Crude down right now. Maybe I was too quick...
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Oils
Betting that the crude is breaking out here from the downward channel. Bidding on TYKS, PARE, LUPE and VOST, all listed in Sweden. I will update on any trades that go through.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
GOOGLE CALLS
Taking profits in the last of google calls as the expiration closes in. A nice 570% run or so.
Monday, November 07, 2005
Friday, November 04, 2005
Oils
Trimming positions in VOST and PARE after a good run. Look at the CL chart and it looks like we are going down from here. Still long.
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
AAPL Puts
Bought some short dated AAPL in the money puts. Payed 2.10 per contract. The stock is ahead of itself.
Monday, October 31, 2005
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
GOOG Calls
By the way I didn't get those calls I was bidding for yesterday, sometimes you should just hit that offer...
The Case for Google
Fundmental:
- Q3 very strong, and that is suppose to be the weakest quarter
- New target prices at $450
- Low PEG
- Growing market as advertising move from offline to online
Triggers:
- Google Base (think eBay, Amazon)
- Google Calendar (think Microsoft Outlook)
- Google Wallet (think Paypal)
- Inclusion in various indices (think S&P 500)
-> Buy
- Q3 very strong, and that is suppose to be the weakest quarter
- New target prices at $450
- Low PEG
- Growing market as advertising move from offline to online
Triggers:
- Google Base (think eBay, Amazon)
- Google Calendar (think Microsoft Outlook)
- Google Wallet (think Paypal)
- Inclusion in various indices (think S&P 500)
-> Buy
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
GOOG, AMZN, EBAY, YHOO, MSFT
Seems like Google is about to announce a new service, gbase. This could be bad news for eBay and Amazon. At least Yahoo and Microsoft will no longer feel alone competing with Google. Also, a calendar service could be near, MS Outlook need to look out. Currently bidding on GOOG calls.
GOOG
Google got great momentum right here, and can spark a rally in the tech Internet sector. I have my eyes on some long dated calls in the $400-$450 range, should we see any substantial weakness going forward.
Crude
Crude holding nice here around $60/barrel for the December future. The buyer are going back in to the oils as they recognize the cheap valuations and that we still have crude at these levels. Portfolio is long and strong as PARE and VOST are showing nice gain today.
Monday, October 24, 2005
GOOG, Oils
Google turn out better than expected. We are now seeing new targets at the $450 level. The selling in oils seems to have come to an end, even though we are seeing crude slide futher. Remaining long GOOG and Oils.
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
GOOG, XOM
Closing positions in the GOOG puts. Buying GOOG 310 Nov Call. Buying XOM 60 Nov Call. Looks like Crude is going to $60 after the numbers...
XOM
XOM is getting very cheap. If there is more panic in the US tonight, I might pick up some calls for next week earnings.
YHOO's earning were better than expected, that usually means no need to worry too much about GOOG. Might however be defensive and buy back the puts, buy some calls.
Panic
Investors (day traders) are panicking in the oils again. Picking up some PARE and VOST on the sale, adding to my positions. Crude is holding suprisingly well above $60/barrel. No one ever made money panicking.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
Blood on the Street
Everything is red on my screen now. GOOG, YHOO, Crude, XOI is down almost 4%, look atRFX. ^NDX just turned negative. AAPL seems like the big exception today. Maybe time to buy soon...?
Thoughts
I think crude can go lower in the short term (~60), which will hurt the oils. On the other hand, I think PARE and VOST are getting cheap. So either you buy more on the way down or sell out and go back in. It's really a matter of your trading horizon/style. Google is really getting hammered here, as usual do not panic. The Stockholm Stock Exchange is closed now.
Crude, GOOG
Invetory data is out, the futures are still down, but less than this morning. This is a very tricky market. Google has fallen below $300. Apparantly they are in talks with AOL. 3Q results are out in the not too distanct future. It's usually the weaker quarter of the year...
Market
Crude is backing off and bit, and suddenly we see panicking going on in the oils again. Today we will see inventory numbers. Hopefully Google can see resistance here at around $300. It's become a tough market.
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
LUPE, TYKS, AAPL
Taking profits in LUPE and TYKS, zeroing positions. We saw last week what happens if the crude falls. Lots of speculations in these papers. Buying AAPL OCT 50 CALLS, as a speculative short-term trade, paid $1.00 per contract.
Oils, GOOG, AAPL, ^IXIC
Another day where we see the oils giving a boost to the portfolio. Crude continous to be holding up here. Enjoy the trend and stay calm for now. Google have been in a down trend lately and it can be time for a trade there. For the last three trading days the stock have been losing early in the trading session. AAPL was gapping down in after hours due to its earning realease, might be an opportunity for a trade there ahead of today's product announcement. Will keep you posted. The Nasdaq Comp has been losing ground lately, as I see it we could see a bump up here around 2050.
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
YHOO, GOOG, AAPL, Crude
Google is off $3.50 following Yahoo, whos share is down 2%. Crude is very strong, and so are the oils. Also note that Apple is gaining over 2% ahead of product announcement and earnings. Doesn't like like a good time to buy now...
Monday, October 10, 2005
Oil Strategy
The strategy for the time being is to increase in the oils on any weakness. Weakness will most likely come on days when crude backs off. PA Resources and Vostok Nafta will remain the bigger bets of the oils, followed by Lundin Petroleum and Tanganyika Oil.
Update, AAPL
TYKS, PARE, LUPE and VOST all regaining momentum as crude prices stablize above $60/barrel for the time being. Apple is set to hold a news conference on Wednesday, probably annoucing new products/updates. It might just be a new 80 Gbit iPod, instead of a video iPod that was rumoured. Will keep you posted on any trade in AAPL before Wednesday.
Friday, October 07, 2005
Oils
Bidding on Lupe and Tyks as crude is regaining some of its losses. I don't rule out further weakness in crude. Keep some ammo dry for possible bargains to come.
Thursday, October 06, 2005
The Market
Weakness in Crude as expected. Dollar waek as expected. I reiterate scale in to oils. Carefully. Otherwise stay out of this market. Don't panic.
OXGN, VOST, PARE
Selling OXGN in the morning, buying VOST and PARE as the market overreacts. Be cautious with oils as the CRUDE is in a downward trend...
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
Thoughts
Reducing common long position in GOOG. OXGN looks strong for now. Hope to pick up some oils at bargain tomorrow. Dollar seems to reversing to weaker for now. Crude and Gold are both in a negative trend.
OXGN, Oxigene
Buying Oxigene in Stockholm (listed on Stockholm Stock Exchange and Nasdaq) as the company has positive news out. Lets see what the US trading session can do for the stock price...
Google, Oil Stocks
Google disappointed the market by not revealing much about the new deal with SUNW. Oil stocks have a very tough time when crude's showing weakness, even though valuations come down, it's not recommended to fight the tape. Wait for the right moment to enter. Sometime cash is a traders best bet.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Closing Positions
The December Crude WTI future breaking below $65. Closing positions in LUPE, VOST-SDB and PARE...
Monday, October 03, 2005
Overview
VOSTOK, PARE up. LUPE weak as expected. Oil holding firm above $65 as we see yet another day with weak dollar. Google puts well out of money as the weak 3:rd quarter has come to an end. Are we going to see a year end Cramer tech rally?
Sunday, October 02, 2005
GOOG falling in after hours trading as the company wasn't added to the S&P500 this time. Adding on the long side if 300 is revisted. In other news the company is bidding to offer free WiFi in the San Fransisco area.
Thursday, September 29, 2005
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