Putting on a Hedge

Sold the Mar S&P future this morning as we saw a heavy sell of in Asia. Yesterday mostly Nasdaq was selling off in the US. I am normally very careful shorting the market as there are so many odds working against you.

Been comfortable long crude (which I rolled over to Feb contract), I would be careful before this weeks number though. As the market might not want to get surprise once more, plus we have the warm weather.

Yesterday I was on the sell side of Lupe as the stock was up big and this is the name that feels closest to the exit. However my offer wasn't hit. I got in the stock believing that this 'blue chip' oil would be a reasonable safe bet on energy, and also given the fantastic track-record. The risks the company shouldn't be ignored.

Would buy back GS here, they reported a record quarter and the company is cheap based on multiples. Think the option expiration last week hold the stock back. It also seems like the analysts don't believe they can produce this kind of earnings going forward.

Google got hit bad in the Nasdaq sell-off. I would get aggressively longer on any further weakness as it is trading at a PEG under 1, very bullish for the stock, historically.

Portfolio Update

December Silver expired with a nice profit, even though it continued a bit after expiration. As for Crude, it seems that I have been on the right side of the trade so far. I think we could see some upwards momentum going forward from here, I don't regard $65 as unlikely during the winter months. LMC, BOLI and PARE have all been phenomenal lately. Boliden has really played out nice as a fundamental case, up some more than 40% since the position was initiated not long ago. The stock is still not expensive based on next year's estimates with a P/E well below 10. The company also seems more shareholder friendly now with a big dividend coming next year. I don't like to sell BOLI under SEK 200. Pare, my largest holding, closed on a new ATH on Friday. I hope to be able to be a bit more active in my trading than I have been able to be lately although the holidays are closing in.

Market Update

My S&P puts expired with a profit at $5. Google is flying past $500 and is currently up some 2.71% in today's market. Many of the stocks on my watch list, such as WYNN, GS, MA, AAPL, NYX, HANS are all moving up fast here. I was bidding on Crude yesterday at $58.00. The January contract was trading at $57.75 only minutes before, however I missed that trade although I am still long the contract. Metal, oil and commodity stocks are all up big right here. We are seeing colder weather now in the US.

Two Trades

Rolled over the December contract in Crude to January. Bought the SPX Put with the 1405 strike and expiration tomorrow. Payed $4.7. A pure speculation play.

Two All Time Highs and More

My two biggest holdings both made all time highs today. PARE ended the session at it highest point SEK 58. The stock is playing out perfectly according to plan. There should be a lot more to come its way. Google was very close to break the $500 barrier intraday, but ended the day at slightly above $390. Fundamentally I strongly believe that the stock could go to $600.

Silver made a turn-around today, ending up after being down in the morning. Crude also showed some strength after the inventory data. US is still very warm, but that could change quick.

The two big disappointments in the portfolio both belongs to the Lundin sphere, namely LUMI and LUPE. Today I switched Lumi to LMC for purely technical reasons. The stock is getting hurt by the price of Copper which is not as bullish as Zinc. I might average down on this position going forward. LUPE I have view as a proxy for Crude which has been a mistake. I don't like to sell it down here and it very well could be that the company wants to give the market a bearish picture in order to surprise to the upside in the future.

A Very Good Day

Pare and Lumi up over 6% each today, Boli up almost 4% as commodities find new strength. Goog is up over 1%.

I sold my last Nordnet at 21.90.

Waiting for pull-back to go in heavier in equities.

A Comeback

LUMI.ST is back in the portfolio. I bought them yesterday in Stockholm before Cramer's buy recommendation was widely known in the market. The stock is fundamentally very attractive and I like its zinc exposure.

A Very Healthy Market

Today's sell-off comes one day after the end of the fiscal year for mutual funds, maybe not a coincident. The selling of GS and TTM turned out to have been done at a remarkable good time. GS was down over 2% today and TTM has been down big since I closed out the position. Continued to scale back in Nordnet today as the stock showed some strength.

Crude and Silver are strong here. Crude was up big at one time today after the inventory data.

Tomorrow I might add a new position in Stockholm, a certain urgency is related to arbitrage issues.

Risk-Taking Paying Off

This morning as crude was down big after yesterday's big drop, which was the biggest decline since August last year, I bought the December contract. Below $58 crude should be bought. The contract traded down to $57.025 just after I got in. CNBC was talking about how OPEC can't be trusted, how the weather is not as cold as expected etc. In a remarkable turn-around crude is now trading at $58.7. Once again this strategy seems to be paying off.

I started scaling back in my Nordnet holding today as the stock was showing some strength.

Taking Some Off the Table

Sold positions in GS and TTM late yesterday. Got an average around $192 for GS and $19.64 for TTM. I still regard both stocks as undervalued but wanted to take some profits. With today's action it turned out to be the right decision. Of course a high-beta stock like GOOG falls here after the run-up. Crude should be bought under $60, and it could have been done today.

Nordnet reported the other day. After listening to the conference call one has to reconsider the stock. Q4 will certainly be stronger than the last quarter, but I will get out of the stock in any strength. I regard Nordnet as one of the big disappointment in my portfolio. Commission will put pressure on the company's margins in the time to come at the same time a market like Germany seems to disappoint.

A Trade and Some Thoughts

Covered my short Dec S&P futures at the 1384 level, maybe not an optimal trade but didn't like that my short position dragged on for so long.

Crude is up big here. My playbook was to go long if the market showed some weakness today after the numbers. Now the strategy should be to go long on any weakness.

Pare exploded up today more than 10% after they released some news from Tunisia as I expected they would do and wrote here earlier. I think this is only the beginning of a re-valuation of the stock, more news could also be on the way soon.

Google recently set a new all time high above $480. As with Pare, I believe the stock has further to go. I believe one of the most exciting news could be close to prime time. Gdrive (or Patypus as it is called internally at Google) maybe be near launch.

GOOG

Google just reported a blowout quarter, and is trading up towards $460 right now in the after hours trading.

Market Update

Apple is up huge after the earnings report, closing in on $80. I have been writing a lot about the stock on this blog lately.

I will stay with my S&P 500 short for some time longer as market has a way of turning around right after options expiration.

Every time crude is trading below $58 we get a spike up, no difference this time. My Swedish commodity stocks are all up nicely. Especially PARE and BOLI. I expect PARE to release new information to the market any time now. Silver is up nice, now trading over $12/ounce.

A stock that is keeping one of my portfolios down is Nordnet. Bank of America just launch a zero commission service for the US market and a Swedish paper is reporting that Saxo Bank has done the same in Denmark. This is probably what is keeping the stock down. I am waiting for the earnings report, due in one weeks time.

Google is reporting in 1 hour time, and is up ahead.

Decline

We got the biggest decline in over a month in the S&P 500. Looking to close out position today or tomorrow.

Hedging

Putting on a new play, shorting the December S&P 500 future in a contrarian move. Executing at the 1374 level. The market is due for a down move here...

Very good action in Silver lately. Also Crude is moving higher, so far $58 seems to be the bottom.

Calling a Bottom

The sentiment seems to have a changed in the oil market. We now got several bullish factors going forward:

- New developments in regards to North Korea
- Opec are cutting production, defending the price
- Apparently new storms are on the way
- Winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere

Seems like $58 could have been the bottom, some $20 dollars from the top. Assuming the price overshot as much in both directions, a fair price would be $68...

In other news Google is ramping up quickly on the YouTube rumors, which might very well be true. GS, TTM and my energy stocks are all doing very well right here. Wish I had increased the Silver position while it was trading below $11 last week.

According to Plan

We are seeing a washout in crude in progress, might continue for a couple of days. Sold the Nasdaq futures very near the top. Silver has been holding up so far. Looks like an opportunity in Apple is closing in...

Market Strategy

Everyone seem very bullish all of a sudden, CNBC is devoting the day to "Dow Wednesday". The trend followers tell you never to sell on a ATH. I just sold my Nasdaq futures taking profits for a trade just before the closing bell. Looking to buy back lower within days. After a huge move, Nordnet is almost back to break-even. Fundamentals pay off in the end. Crude is up huge today after bearish numbers.. So is silver, looking to increase position on a pull back. Might be time to enter crude as well, although I was waiting for a washout of the last bulls first. Apple seems to be THE name to be in, in this tech rally. Might pick up some calls if it sells of further. The end of the quarter might signal reversals in many assets, similar to an expiry.

Market Strategy

Everyone seem very bullish all of a sudden, CNBC is devoting the day to "Dow Wednesday". The trend followers tell you never to sell on a ATH. I just sold my Nasdaq futures taking profits for a trade just before the closing bell. Looking to buy back lower within days. After a huge move, Nordnet is almost back to break-even. Fundamentals pay off in the end. Crude is up huge today after bearish numbers.. So is silver, looking to increase position on a pull back. Might be time to enter crude as well, although I was waiting for a washout of the last bulls first. Apple seems to be THE name to be in, in this tech rally. Might pick up some calls if it sells of further. The end of the quarter might signal reversals in many assets, similar to an expiry.

A Late Trade

Bought the Dec Nasdaq future at 1639 late in the Friday's session. The weak numbers on Thursday gave me an opportunity to get in.

Silver

Rolled to Dec.

Successful Expiry

My short GOOG puts expired out of the money. My remaining Nasdaq futures showed nice gains all the way in.

Profit Taking

I an effort to not being piggish, I am on the sell side with my Apple shares as well as half the Nasdaq position. Sell high, buy low.

Thoughts

Oil has been in a sharp downward spiral for some time now. The market is always overshooting both ways. This is not the end of the commodities bull market/super cycle. Fundamentals are unchanged. Note that crude is up today, I view this as very bullish indeed.

An interest rate stop/decrease could be very bullish for the most hated group out there - housing. Might play this group aggressively in the near future.

Puts/Calls. I strongly believe the time has come to be more aggressive on the market, and I will change strategy from put selling to call buying going forward. As noted before flexibility/adaptation is the key to be successful.

Google is gaining new momentum and is again trading above the $400 mark. This article gets you thinking http://blogs.zdnet.com/Google/?p=324.

Apple Delievers

iTV is coming Q1 next year. This is the Media Center we have been waiting for, for some time now. This could open a new market for the company and synergies with the iPod, iTunes Store etc. are obvious.


The next big thing could be iPhone...

Confidence vs. Hubris

I really believe that the importance of confidence as a trader can't be overstated. It is so easy to sell (or buy) at the precisely wrong time if you lack confidence. Take the analyst call before the MA report, or before today's GS report, or at the times when the market is bottoming as examples. Weak hands will be washed out at those moments. Needless to say confidence needs to be backed-up with skills. Hubris on the other hand is lethal for a trader.

Merger Mania in Stockholm

OMX Xact is up some 2.3%, outperforming the rest of Europe. There is take-over rumours around some of the biggest companies. Scania is halted on the Stock Exchange (Man), Volvo has been going straight up for some time as the company is under pressure from a hedge fund, there are rumours surronding Electrolux, OMX wants to get a bid from Nasdaq and Boliden is apparently being approach by BHP Billiton. The rumour says that they are bidding SEK 2o5 for the company. It is not entirely unlikely... The stock is right now up some 8% or SEK 11, UBS is on the bid.

All my names are up today. GS is up 3% on the earnings report. Google has printed 390 earlier in the session. Tata Motors is up over 2%. It feels like the market has come to life again, this could very well be the start of a bigger up-side move during the fall...

Taking a Bite...

...of the Apple. Bought some at $72.40 ahead of tonight's presentation. I hope that the company can take a share of the living room entertainment...

Went long Silver on higher levels than were we currently are. I am aware that I am sticking out my neck here, but I know of no other way of making a killing in the markets. Silver is up more than 2% today. Will scale into the position. At the same time I realize that flexibility is a key to be successful in this market.

MA had a huge run-last night after dipping below $60 momentarily.

GS is reporting tonight, will watch closely for any buying opportunity.

Everyone is very, very negative on oil right now. We are still at $66, people seems to forget that. This could be the time to get aggressive on the XOI again as it is quickly approaching 1000.

SPX closed last night at 1300.

MA and More

Mastercard is breaking through $60, quite amazing, up 2.55% on a day when most names are in the red. Amazing, but surprising, no!

Maybe the new playbook could be as follows:
- Buy MA below 60
- Buy GOOG below 380
- Buy GS below 150

Now, what did VN say about even numbers?

Also note that commodities are getting absolute hammered right here, one would think that would be good for equities in general... Is the slowing economy the reason? Maybe it is all over for equities as well as for commodities, let's buy them!!

As Predicted

Mastercard is showing incredible strength in this tough market conditions, looks like there is a question of time before the stock will pass $60. The lesson is to not to listen to the analysts, as usual a contrarian approach makes a lot of sense. When the downgraded the stock as much lower level over a month ago before the report, a lot of people were scared away from this name. It has turned out to be one of the most successful IPO in recently time. My approach to wait for a dip has not worked so far.

The Silver market is still on fire. It certainly seems to be much more trending than then equity markets are. After some very successful trades earlier in the year I have still to make any money on the recent run as I have been heavily invested in the equity market.

The price of crude oil has come down from high $70 to mid $60 in a very short time frame (as predicted). The observation to make is how quick sentiment can change. Disruptions in Nigera, hurricane season and crisis in Iran all disappeared from the radar, instead it looks like oil in big quantities were found in the gulf of Mexico. It is easy to forget that it will take years for this hard-to-get oil to come on-line. However, in the long run it will be all about the fundamentals. In the short run oil is quickly approaching target levels, and a contrarian trade could again be the way to make money. Only thing to be cautious about is really the seasonality in the price, but it is all about what is price-in in the future contracts.

Housing market seems to be a concern for the market in general. I would guess the Fed quite pleased with the recent development, together with the cooling energy prices. Cramer is worth listening to regarding the housing market.

Portfolio Update

Pare is exploding to the upside, as my biggest holding it has a material impact on the portfolio level. Maybe the market is starting to discount what the company has been saying for a while. If everything goes according to plan, there should be substantial upside still. Lupe is not doing as good, but I am not selling at these relative low levels. Google hasn't taken off yet, the company is trading at a PEG-ration under 1 on next years earnings. In the meantime put selling works great. Goldman was downgraded last week and was trading down to bargain level, PE 8 and change on next year's. I was close to pull the trigger on put selling there. Maybe I will get another opportunity if the market sells off. As previously predicted here the Silver market has really got new momentum, and is trading close to $13. The ETF now has more than 100 million ounces for the first time. My inactivity has several reasons, one being that I am fairly comfortable with my positions. Another being that I really got in heavily after the May sell-off which has limited my ability to trade around my positions. At least I wasn't forced to sell at the absolute bottom but has to the contrary increased my holdings. I am pleased with all names the exception being Nordnet which I still believe is a great name but the performance has just been terrible, so far. I hope to become more active again as it has historically meant that I have managed to increased my performance during those times, although I don't believe in over-trading for several reasons.

Back In

I am back to the original position in the Nasdaq futures. My strategy is working so far. I should have been more aggressive bidding for Boliden yesterday. Nordnet continuous to be a big underperformed for the portfolio.

Market Update

Bidding on Boliden. Swedish stocks are getting hammered today. Meanwhile the US commodity counterparts are seeing nice gains. Boliden is too cheap. Have another hour or so to pick up some more stock. (The metal prices are up lately). Asian and European market sold off today and while the Nasdaq future still was around -0.23% I sold my whole position and just started buying back seconds ago at around -0.79%. Of course I should have gone short, but at least I saved some money. It is, by the way, a very healthy market that sells off before tomorrow's Fed meeting. Notable is that my US stocks are all up today; GOOG, GS, TTM. Still which I owned MA.

A Trade

Sold the Google Sep $370 put for $13.30, which gives me a break-even at $356.70. Levels I have a hard time imagine. The company is now trading at less than 30x 2007 earning estimates. Some time Nasdaq will be back in fashion, and particularly growth stocks, now is the time to position yourself. Credit card company Mastercard releases better than expected Q2 earnings and was trading up 4 straight points this morning. I was scared by all the negativity in the media and among analysts, although I don't think it is too late long term. On the other hand, I don't like to chase it up here. Oil is very strong here, my advice is to watch storm Chris closely. Elsewhere on the radar is Nat Gas and Sugar. Silver seems to be gaining new momentum as well and is worth following. In Sweden my oil/mining stocks are all up big today.

Successful Put Selling

As MA closed just above $45 on Friday, the strategy was successful. This might be the time to initiate a new rounds of put selling at it seems to be the only thing working in this market. One should also consider more aggressive strategies as the market sentiment tends to turn around very quick.

Update

The Nasdaq is up roughly 3% on softer than expected words from the Fed. It is nice to have doubled the NQ position the days before. When the markets overshoot to the downside I tend to decrease the trading, and instead increase the risk exposure, this will make sure you are fully participating on days like yesterday. Of course I just missed the XOI calls (as I mentioned here before) as LUPE that I was bidding for. However, over the longer term I think it makes a lot of sense to place market orders. Silver seems to be gaining momentum again, I and will be on the lookout for any opportunities there going forward. The Silver ETF, SLV, is steadily increasing its holding and got to be one of the biggest buyers in the physical market. For now I'm happy with my holdings.

Google just launched Checkout which might be huge over the medium-long term for the company. Think eBay. This will also strengthen the existing ad business.

Looking at potential announcements going forward I think we should focus on:

- Web-office: Word and Excel online. (Think Microsoft, OLPC)

- Gdrive, a virtual online hard disk. (Think thin-client, OLPC)

If only...

XOI is up an amazing 4% after Kerr McGee merger frenzy.. now if I only had those calls I was so close to pull the trigger on 2 days ago... well can't complain I got no oils in the portfolio...

It is all about what is priced in

Everyone is expecting a rate hike next week, and that the market would be relief once it is done. As this is already priced in the we are seeing the upside action right now, beforehand. This is not surprising and in line with what you would expect if you think in term of what is being priced in. While the media increasingly has been warning of catching falling knifes, I have been getting longer and longer until the negative cash position was reached. We are now seeing the payoff of going against the grain. NQ +1.6%, GOOG +2.6%, TTM +2.9%, GS +2.5%, MA +3.7% etc. I wish I was even longer oil names as crude has been holding strong XOM is near 52 week low, to take one example.

A Bargain

Picked up the NQ Sep Future at the 1565 level.

Update

As per typical the Friday Option and Future expiration where shaking off weak hands, although some issues were down on Monday (people selling assigned stocks). The GS puts ended in the money and I'm now long common at a comfortable level. Today bidding on LUPE, NNb and the NQ future, but market took off after orders where put in. I'm looking to play the widening disconnect between Crude (that has stayed strong all the way through this market meltdown) and Oil service stock through ^XOI call options as the time has come to be more aggressive. However I prefer to bid when prices are down on the day.

Another Day, Another Trade

Sold some MA puts, the stock has been extremely strong recently and it's been very frustrating to have been caught on the sideline of this one. MA is up almost 30% since its IPO. Today it is trading lower as the overall market is showing weakness. Put selling is paying an implied volatility of 40%, I got $1 per option for the July 45 strike.

The Swedish market will open tomorrow after today's holiday.

Corrections

The market is in correction mode. Re-valuating stocks after last weeks extreme action. Google up 3%, Naz up almost 2% (unrealized profit in the futures contract), PARE up from below 30 to almost 40 as the company is updating the market. Metals in free fall as the hot money is withdrawing. Crude staying strong, still above $70. The recent IPO Mastercard (MA) should be bought on any weakness as the stock was way under-priced.

Some Relief

Oil index XOI is higher here, although Crude is down some 2.5% for the day. Adjusting some of the recent overreaction in the oils. Picking up some Tata Motors (TTM) here, as the stock has become very cheap in light of the Indian market meltdown. Using wide scales.

More Pain

Bought into Nordnet B yesterday, the stock was down. It has been hit in recent market declines, although the turnover on the Stock Exchange been in their favour and the valuation looks good. Scaling into the position, might buy more in today's session. Other opportunities on my watch list might be added as well.

Update

Rolled the YI future to JUL.

On my target list waiting for pullback are these names:

Tata Motors
Nordnet B
XOI Calls

Spring Sale

Increased NQ and took a small position in YI this morning. Interested to buy call options in XOI as the market has shown its irrationality (with crude up above $71 and oil stocks in free fall recently), but waiting for a pullback, as I like to buy low. The Google upside insurance expired without value, the stock is up this morning, trading above $380.

Mining for a Bargain

Picking up a new name, Boliden. The stock is trading at P/E 6 on this years earnings, thus limited downside from here. Also note Google's strength in yesterday's overall weak market. Crude is showing surprisingly strength here, currently trading at around $68.50/barrel. Seems like it is more a an equity related sell-off so far.

A Trade

Picking up the NQ future in thin Asian trading. When stocks decline it is a reason to become more bullish.

Blood on the Street

Everything is red on the screen. Sold off the last silver at 13.600, to secure a profit. Think we are closer to buying opportunity than a selling. This is not the time to panic.

Google's Fragile Business Model

The last 20 points decline in the stock price can be tracked to Microsoft's inclusion of a search box in forthcoming IE7 that will default to MSN Search. Google's great business model (the model of the Internet) cuts both ways. Even if you are the best at what you do, it is hard to protect yourself against a monopolistic player. Few seemed to have noticed the Search button in the current version of IE, does anyone use it? Staying long Google.

Re-Positioning

Interesting times. Took some profits in Silver as the price is up roughly 10% on the first day of SLV trading (CNBC have been touting every day how Gold went down when GLD was listed, so this one was given), sold half my position. Goldman Sachs is down hard here, without any real news. The company is attractively valued, taking the opportunity to sell the JUN 150 Put. For the premium (yeah I know, it is not like the money is in the bank or anything) I'm buying GOOG MAY 43o Call, another contrarian play. The stock's been going down every day since the blow-out quarter (at least it feels that way). Betting on a fast recovery next week there. Also today bought back LUPE cheaper. How quick the market forget that oil is trading above $7o! Increased position in PARE, news should be start coming from that company any time now. Don't want to go 'all-in' in the oils here, as Crude is so volatile at the moment.

Long Silver

Going long silver again, as the listing should be imminent. Scaling in very carefully.

Taking Profit

Covering Crude here as I don't see any real following through here after Bush's speech. Might have been too early, but a profit is a profit.

Update

Markets lower today in general. The thesis about equities and commodities (oil) retreating was correct. Closed out the short Dow position too early though. Sitting on a nice (unrealized) profit in Crude. Glad I covered the long USD as the currency is still showing strength here. Panic selling in oil stocks as Crude is coming down. Easy to forget oil is still well above $70/barrel. Won't add to any positions before the number though. Google's weak hear, as it the market. Might soon be time to go long Silver again, as the listing should be very close in time.

USD

Closing the long USD position as we see some strength today. Realizing a loss.

Closing One Position

Covering the short in YM with small profit.

A Contrarian Play

As the markets seems to be stretched, I'm trying a contrarian play:

- Short WTI Crude
- Short Dow Jones
- Long USD vs. EUR

GOOG Puts

Expired OTM. Was never really worried.

The Fundamental Case for GOOG

It goes like this: earning will be revised up to $10 this year. Apply a conservative growth of 30%, with a PEG-ratio of 2 we get a $600 target. (I've borrowed from Cramer here).

The stock were trading close to $450 after hours. At $438 it is a dissapointment, the stock is getting affected by the 1.2% decline in the Nasdaq 100.

Google is a high beta stock (although Yahoo Finance says 0.1, which must mean a really low correlation with the market (as it is not lacking volatility). Will check this number another time). If the market turns ugly, it will not be fun to own Google.

Staying long.

A (very) Good Trade and a Bad Trade

Shorting silver was the best short-term trade so far recorded on this blog. Just closed out the last bit of the position. What a ride!

Selling LUPE was wrong, commodities and especially crude is very strong here, topping $75 on the June contract.

Pullback

Taking profits in LUPE, closing out position. Awaiting pullback.

Staying on the Right Side of the Trade

Going short silver here as we see some weakness after a very long run, just to see how far down we go on this move. Might very well go long today again.

Can't Stomach It Anymore...

... couldn't keep my fingers away from the sell button any longer, it is very hard to pyramid a position. Took some off the table in Silver as the metal is up over 5% today alone. The crude ETF started trading today and the commodity is up over 2%. We can see more explosive action in Silver when the ETF finally is listed, which should be any day now. Not sure I did the right thing. Still long Silver though.

Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda

... is an expression borrowed from Cramer. Was contemplating Thursday night if this was not the time to get contrarian, short some Nasdaq futures and go long some Dollar cross. You can't win them all, there's always another trade. Think commodity and equity markets could be weak for a few more days, middle next week might be the time to put more money into the oils and the market. Silver held even yesterday, seems like it will stay strong until we get the listing announcement, then it might be time to take some profits, in the middle of the hype. Staying long for now.

Google

Some triggers for the stock:

CL2
Gdrive
GBuy
Google Music
Interactive TV

The last two are the more speculative, while the rest is more or less confirmed.

Commodities

Increased PARE position as the stock's lagging the oil price. Waiting for down days in crude to increase position further (buy on weakness). Silver continues its path, crossing $12 for the May contract for the first time. Staying long.

Lose Some, Win Some

Took a terrible hit on TPEP today, a calculated bet that failed. In other markets silver is still unbelievably strong, down during Asian trading but back in positive territory now. Even crude is holding nice, even tough a correction was expected after a run like this. Would wait until after the inventory numbers come out to add to the oils position. Google was just breaking up above $400, slightly below right now. This is despite more bashing of the stock, this time from the Motley Fool.

Tripep

The company is reporting that the study was a failure. Will sell the stock during the day.

A Gift and Two Trades

Google is down today, I take the gift by selling the Apr 270 put. Closing out OXGN at 4.45, I hoped they would be down more today.

A Trade

Going short OXGN here at 4.50, betting on a set back tomorrow. Will exit the position tomorrow.

Raising Cash

Selling position in TYKS and LUMI after recent rally. This is in line with "buying low, selling high". Inventory number today means volatility and possibility to buy back lower. Might add to the remaining oils in the portfolio. Silver position developing well so far. Google could be interesting, will be added to S&P 500 beginning next week, also April's Fool Day coming up, which usually means the introduction of new services. Maybe it is time for GDrive or CL2 this time. GDrive being the most revolutionary one of the two...

Post 100

Crude contracts expired. The decline in the April contracts shows that a profit can very easily be wiped out when the speculators roll the contract. Increased the Silver position amid the positive ETF news. Plan is to pyramid the position over the coming month.

Expiration Day

Bought back the Mar GOOG put for $10.30/contract, which shows that the strategy (put selling) can make a nice profit even if the market moves against you...

When Family Fiction is Tamer than Truth

Very interesting article in NYT http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/28/features/galt.php . If you haven't read his books, here is a review of review written by Nicholas Taleb (the original review is written by Michael Lewis) http://www.dailyspeculations.com/reviews/books/Taleb.html . Dailyspeculations is Victor Niederhoffer's web site.

Today LUMI, PARE, TPEP, TYKS and VOST are higher. Crude and Silver have had big up moves recently. Was bidding in PARE yesterday, will increase position on a down day. Lupe has come to a standstill. Lets hope GOOG can perform tonight.

What a Comeback!

Crude, silver and Google all exploding upwards in Thursday US market action.

GOOG

Sold the Arpil 350 PUT .

Crude and More

Buying the April contract. Inventories are high, but refinery maintenance is drawing closer. Unrest in Nigeria, Iraq. Problems in Iran etc. Also this time of the year usually mark the low in Crude. Rolling over the silver futures to May expiration. Might sell some more GOOG puts, especially if the stock is lower in US trading.

Market

The high inventory numbers led to the steep decline in crude prices. At $58 and change, it would have been a great buy. The metals followed the crude down, are now back on a unrealized profit in the silver futures. The energy inventories could be needed in March, as some refineries are scheduled to shut down. The market seems to be back in a bullish commodities mode, and buy opportunities could emerge in a temporary dip. Picked up a few PARE today as the stock have been an under performer lately. In other news, the Barron's article provided a great buying opportunity in Google.

In Good Company

Victor is long GOOG, see http://dailyspeculations.com/

Option Trade

When stock crashes, the volatility often rises, hence it makes a lot of sense to sell puts if you still stick to its fundamentals that is. Sold March 350 puts on GOOG. Got about $18 per contract.

Bull Market

Buying some silver futures very carefully.

Rounding up a Position

Buying some TYKS, as the stock is down today due to the Syria connection.

A New Name

Buying some Tripep as results are due late March from their Phase I study. Also increasing in VOST and bidding for some more PARE.

Healthy Market

Adding to PARE and TYKS position as the market is correcting today and these two were smaller than the others in the portfolio. Hopefully we'll get another day of correction tomorrow, will add more then.

Strategy Continued

Carefully scaling into more oils. Buying some PARE.

Putting Money to Work

Scaling into Tanyanika Oil, Lundin Petroleum, Vostok Nafta and bidding on Lundin Mining. Renewed strength in crude.

Profit Taking

Taking profit in the crude contracts. Might be too early, but a very nice trade anyway.

Taking Profit

Exiting XACT BULL here. Frustrating that the oils keep going higher, although the commodity is plummeting. At least I'm short the crude.

Trading

Bought OMX BULL, which gives 2x leverage to OMX. Bought more GOOG. Shorted more March Crude. Still bidding on GOOG.

Selling Oils

Sold my positions in TYKS and PARE, looking to buy back cheaper.

A Trade and Some Thoughts

Going short the March contract as this moves looks overdone. Soon time to build position for GOOG earnings next week.

Crude Future

Expired. Played out nice after the numbers, but then something happended.

Crude

Shorting crude, looking to buy back in the coming days.

Trading

Doubling up on GOOG right here at $450. Taking profit on the Nasdaq future, closing out position.

Market

Short Nasdaq future turn out to be the right thing to do. Might look to sell GOOG in the opening, as this could get really ugly short term. Think crude might overdone its move, might go short before numbers are released. That could provide a cushion for the Equity markets as well. If that happens looking to buy GOOG aggressively as YHOO wasn't that bad at all. Will scale back in, in oils as well if this plays out, as I think these prices are fantastic for the companies. Interesting markets.

A Trade

Selling the rest of VOST. Looking to buy back cheaper in the coming days.

Equity Markets

Going short the March Nasdaq future as markets in Asia are falling apart, with the trigger being higher oil prices on Iran news.

GOOGLE

On the sell side with half my position.

Locking in Profits

Selling half of TYKS, PARE and on the sell side on VOST, who has exploded on the upside lately. Think there might be some downside to energy markets and equity markets short term.

Crude

Covered position. Very dangerous to go against a bull market, even though it looked good last night.

Lupe

Selling position on the bearish Crude reaction.

Google, Crude

As Google is making new ATH every second day, I am at the same time disappointed. Look at the user interfaces for the new services Base and Video. They are great products from a great company, but they will never get mass appeal the way they currently look. Staying long. Looking for very strong Q4 numbers.

Crude is playing out nice, edging lower here. But it all depends on the number soon out. In the meantime VOST at new ATH, LUPE extremely strong and TYKS is also up almost 2%, only PARE lower.

Shorting Crude

Shorting crude in a move of speculation in front of today's statistics. We had a price run-up, warm weather, so hoping we will see a pullback here.

Update

The holidays proved to be expensive. Missed a huge buying opportunity in GOOGLE when its shares was trading at $413 just before the new year. Below the returns since my last post on December 22 close:

LUPE 2.3% TYKS 14.7% PARE 8.3% VOST 4.6% GOOG 9.1%