Market Strategy

Everyone seem very bullish all of a sudden, CNBC is devoting the day to "Dow Wednesday". The trend followers tell you never to sell on a ATH. I just sold my Nasdaq futures taking profits for a trade just before the closing bell. Looking to buy back lower within days. After a huge move, Nordnet is almost back to break-even. Fundamentals pay off in the end. Crude is up huge today after bearish numbers.. So is silver, looking to increase position on a pull back. Might be time to enter crude as well, although I was waiting for a washout of the last bulls first. Apple seems to be THE name to be in, in this tech rally. Might pick up some calls if it sells of further. The end of the quarter might signal reversals in many assets, similar to an expiry.

Market Strategy

Everyone seem very bullish all of a sudden, CNBC is devoting the day to "Dow Wednesday". The trend followers tell you never to sell on a ATH. I just sold my Nasdaq futures taking profits for a trade just before the closing bell. Looking to buy back lower within days. After a huge move, Nordnet is almost back to break-even. Fundamentals pay off in the end. Crude is up huge today after bearish numbers.. So is silver, looking to increase position on a pull back. Might be time to enter crude as well, although I was waiting for a washout of the last bulls first. Apple seems to be THE name to be in, in this tech rally. Might pick up some calls if it sells of further. The end of the quarter might signal reversals in many assets, similar to an expiry.

A Late Trade

Bought the Dec Nasdaq future at 1639 late in the Friday's session. The weak numbers on Thursday gave me an opportunity to get in.

Silver

Rolled to Dec.

Successful Expiry

My short GOOG puts expired out of the money. My remaining Nasdaq futures showed nice gains all the way in.

Profit Taking

I an effort to not being piggish, I am on the sell side with my Apple shares as well as half the Nasdaq position. Sell high, buy low.

Thoughts

Oil has been in a sharp downward spiral for some time now. The market is always overshooting both ways. This is not the end of the commodities bull market/super cycle. Fundamentals are unchanged. Note that crude is up today, I view this as very bullish indeed.

An interest rate stop/decrease could be very bullish for the most hated group out there - housing. Might play this group aggressively in the near future.

Puts/Calls. I strongly believe the time has come to be more aggressive on the market, and I will change strategy from put selling to call buying going forward. As noted before flexibility/adaptation is the key to be successful.

Google is gaining new momentum and is again trading above the $400 mark. This article gets you thinking http://blogs.zdnet.com/Google/?p=324.

Apple Delievers

iTV is coming Q1 next year. This is the Media Center we have been waiting for, for some time now. This could open a new market for the company and synergies with the iPod, iTunes Store etc. are obvious.


The next big thing could be iPhone...

Confidence vs. Hubris

I really believe that the importance of confidence as a trader can't be overstated. It is so easy to sell (or buy) at the precisely wrong time if you lack confidence. Take the analyst call before the MA report, or before today's GS report, or at the times when the market is bottoming as examples. Weak hands will be washed out at those moments. Needless to say confidence needs to be backed-up with skills. Hubris on the other hand is lethal for a trader.

Merger Mania in Stockholm

OMX Xact is up some 2.3%, outperforming the rest of Europe. There is take-over rumours around some of the biggest companies. Scania is halted on the Stock Exchange (Man), Volvo has been going straight up for some time as the company is under pressure from a hedge fund, there are rumours surronding Electrolux, OMX wants to get a bid from Nasdaq and Boliden is apparently being approach by BHP Billiton. The rumour says that they are bidding SEK 2o5 for the company. It is not entirely unlikely... The stock is right now up some 8% or SEK 11, UBS is on the bid.

All my names are up today. GS is up 3% on the earnings report. Google has printed 390 earlier in the session. Tata Motors is up over 2%. It feels like the market has come to life again, this could very well be the start of a bigger up-side move during the fall...

Taking a Bite...

...of the Apple. Bought some at $72.40 ahead of tonight's presentation. I hope that the company can take a share of the living room entertainment...

Went long Silver on higher levels than were we currently are. I am aware that I am sticking out my neck here, but I know of no other way of making a killing in the markets. Silver is up more than 2% today. Will scale into the position. At the same time I realize that flexibility is a key to be successful in this market.

MA had a huge run-last night after dipping below $60 momentarily.

GS is reporting tonight, will watch closely for any buying opportunity.

Everyone is very, very negative on oil right now. We are still at $66, people seems to forget that. This could be the time to get aggressive on the XOI again as it is quickly approaching 1000.

SPX closed last night at 1300.

MA and More

Mastercard is breaking through $60, quite amazing, up 2.55% on a day when most names are in the red. Amazing, but surprising, no!

Maybe the new playbook could be as follows:
- Buy MA below 60
- Buy GOOG below 380
- Buy GS below 150

Now, what did VN say about even numbers?

Also note that commodities are getting absolute hammered right here, one would think that would be good for equities in general... Is the slowing economy the reason? Maybe it is all over for equities as well as for commodities, let's buy them!!

As Predicted

Mastercard is showing incredible strength in this tough market conditions, looks like there is a question of time before the stock will pass $60. The lesson is to not to listen to the analysts, as usual a contrarian approach makes a lot of sense. When the downgraded the stock as much lower level over a month ago before the report, a lot of people were scared away from this name. It has turned out to be one of the most successful IPO in recently time. My approach to wait for a dip has not worked so far.

The Silver market is still on fire. It certainly seems to be much more trending than then equity markets are. After some very successful trades earlier in the year I have still to make any money on the recent run as I have been heavily invested in the equity market.

The price of crude oil has come down from high $70 to mid $60 in a very short time frame (as predicted). The observation to make is how quick sentiment can change. Disruptions in Nigera, hurricane season and crisis in Iran all disappeared from the radar, instead it looks like oil in big quantities were found in the gulf of Mexico. It is easy to forget that it will take years for this hard-to-get oil to come on-line. However, in the long run it will be all about the fundamentals. In the short run oil is quickly approaching target levels, and a contrarian trade could again be the way to make money. Only thing to be cautious about is really the seasonality in the price, but it is all about what is price-in in the future contracts.

Housing market seems to be a concern for the market in general. I would guess the Fed quite pleased with the recent development, together with the cooling energy prices. Cramer is worth listening to regarding the housing market.

Portfolio Update

Pare is exploding to the upside, as my biggest holding it has a material impact on the portfolio level. Maybe the market is starting to discount what the company has been saying for a while. If everything goes according to plan, there should be substantial upside still. Lupe is not doing as good, but I am not selling at these relative low levels. Google hasn't taken off yet, the company is trading at a PEG-ration under 1 on next years earnings. In the meantime put selling works great. Goldman was downgraded last week and was trading down to bargain level, PE 8 and change on next year's. I was close to pull the trigger on put selling there. Maybe I will get another opportunity if the market sells off. As previously predicted here the Silver market has really got new momentum, and is trading close to $13. The ETF now has more than 100 million ounces for the first time. My inactivity has several reasons, one being that I am fairly comfortable with my positions. Another being that I really got in heavily after the May sell-off which has limited my ability to trade around my positions. At least I wasn't forced to sell at the absolute bottom but has to the contrary increased my holdings. I am pleased with all names the exception being Nordnet which I still believe is a great name but the performance has just been terrible, so far. I hope to become more active again as it has historically meant that I have managed to increased my performance during those times, although I don't believe in over-trading for several reasons.