Buying the GS Mar 200 call for $13.70 as the stock is selling off from record levels at around $220. The stock is cheap, and I will average down if the stock comes down further.
Crude is up over 4% right here as what looks like short covering. My firm believe is that the contract should be accumulated under $55.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Friday, January 26, 2007
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Quite a Day
Sentiment has definitely shifted in the oil patch. It is getting much colder in the northeast US very soon as the winter already arrived in Europe. Fundamentally it is questionable how much it should affect the prices, but on a psychological level it does matter. The strategy of buying at dips is working. The time to buy today was right after the numbers were release when WTI was down some 1.5%. We ended the day up, well above $55.
GS is really breaking up here, posting a new ATH today. Fundamentally this stock has to be bought on dips. A strategy would be to get long Deep-In-the-Money calls.
Google crossing $500 after hours, getting the last push from eBay's report.
As for the major equity indices, I would not get long at current levels.
We are finally seeing some weakness in USD, something I have been looking for lately for a contrarian trade.
GS is really breaking up here, posting a new ATH today. Fundamentally this stock has to be bought on dips. A strategy would be to get long Deep-In-the-Money calls.
Google crossing $500 after hours, getting the last push from eBay's report.
As for the major equity indices, I would not get long at current levels.
We are finally seeing some weakness in USD, something I have been looking for lately for a contrarian trade.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Market Strategy
The theme for crude has quickly shifted to sell on strength to buy on weakness. As the March contract is up at the $55 level, the time to buy was at the expiry of the Feb contract. Cold weather and doubling of US reserves created a short squeeze in today's trading. The tell that the shorts was building positions was that the open interest was increasing during the steep sell off (as noted in earlier posts). Once again the turn-around seems to happen right around the expiry. Of course the media is always backward looking and outlets such as CNBC was speculating about oil in the 30ish when crude was at the bottom. Thus it seems that Goldman and Deutsche were right on their 'doubling down' thesis. Looking at commodities at large one might be surprised to see such strength in silver, gold, natural gas, as well as many softs.
Lunding mining was up close to 5% in today's US session. I am anticipating similar follow thru across the board in Stockholm tomorrow.
Yahoo just reported, the stock is up in after-hours trading. The results should be analysed for tells about Google. On another note; as video is the next frontier of the Intenet and online ads, Google should buy Joost as soon as possible. The business logic behind eBay's buyout of Skype is very questionable. However a Joost takeover makes a lot of sense and would make Google more valuable (as well as Joost).
On the sideline, I am eying a FX trade.
Lunding mining was up close to 5% in today's US session. I am anticipating similar follow thru across the board in Stockholm tomorrow.
Yahoo just reported, the stock is up in after-hours trading. The results should be analysed for tells about Google. On another note; as video is the next frontier of the Intenet and online ads, Google should buy Joost as soon as possible. The business logic behind eBay's buyout of Skype is very questionable. However a Joost takeover makes a lot of sense and would make Google more valuable (as well as Joost).
On the sideline, I am eying a FX trade.
Friday, January 12, 2007
Closing a Position
Crude is up here and I am closing out the position as I am not convinced we have seen the bottom.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
The Good and the Bad
Google at $500 and above in after hours. The stock getting fueled not only by the tech rally but also by Goldman's bullish comments. Also the Swedish holdings having a good rebound, up between 5 to 10% across the line.
Apple is really taking off on the iPhone news. The time to buy was clearly before Macworld which also was considered at the time, but the question is as always what is price in and not and the probability of this or that happen. A priori not a given trade to make. The valuation seems rich, the strategy should be to let the stock come in. Especially since there is quite a bit of time before the release. Apple TV is somewhat overlooked by the media, the only disappointment there is the lack of Google integration.
Goldman Sachs has left the $200 level where it has been at for some time. This is a name to keep an eye on in a market sell-off.
The bad is the energy sell-off where I put in a sell order as the market was up about 10 seconds too late, just to see the future down some $2 in short time. I haven't been following the open interest, but have heard there has been an increase which suggest speculative shorts at play.
Apple is really taking off on the iPhone news. The time to buy was clearly before Macworld which also was considered at the time, but the question is as always what is price in and not and the probability of this or that happen. A priori not a given trade to make. The valuation seems rich, the strategy should be to let the stock come in. Especially since there is quite a bit of time before the release. Apple TV is somewhat overlooked by the media, the only disappointment there is the lack of Google integration.
Goldman Sachs has left the $200 level where it has been at for some time. This is a name to keep an eye on in a market sell-off.
The bad is the energy sell-off where I put in a sell order as the market was up about 10 seconds too late, just to see the future down some $2 in short time. I haven't been following the open interest, but have heard there has been an increase which suggest speculative shorts at play.
Friday, January 05, 2007
Taking Profit
Covered my short Mar S&P futures at 1417. It is not easy to make money on the short side in this market...
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Market Update
A tech rally is underway. Google is one stock that became way too cheap in the 450:s, where it should have been bought heavily. Gdrive and iTV will likely be the big announcements of Q1.
Otherwise the big news is Crude which is tough to be long during a record warm winter in the northern hemisphere. The weather should be priced in already. I think it would be wrong to sell during this shake-out.
Pare has had a fantastic rally up to over SEK 70 before this pull-back. I am waiting for a release from the company before I trim my position.
GS seems to be pinned at $200. Could be a good case for put writing as I don't see much downside trading at P/E 10.
I have been eyeing EURJPY that was trading at record levels and should have been shorted in a contrarian move, I was however more focused on other markets.
Otherwise the big news is Crude which is tough to be long during a record warm winter in the northern hemisphere. The weather should be priced in already. I think it would be wrong to sell during this shake-out.
Pare has had a fantastic rally up to over SEK 70 before this pull-back. I am waiting for a release from the company before I trim my position.
GS seems to be pinned at $200. Could be a good case for put writing as I don't see much downside trading at P/E 10.
I have been eyeing EURJPY that was trading at record levels and should have been shorted in a contrarian move, I was however more focused on other markets.
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