Putting on a Hedge

Sold the Mar S&P future this morning as we saw a heavy sell of in Asia. Yesterday mostly Nasdaq was selling off in the US. I am normally very careful shorting the market as there are so many odds working against you.

Been comfortable long crude (which I rolled over to Feb contract), I would be careful before this weeks number though. As the market might not want to get surprise once more, plus we have the warm weather.

Yesterday I was on the sell side of Lupe as the stock was up big and this is the name that feels closest to the exit. However my offer wasn't hit. I got in the stock believing that this 'blue chip' oil would be a reasonable safe bet on energy, and also given the fantastic track-record. The risks the company shouldn't be ignored.

Would buy back GS here, they reported a record quarter and the company is cheap based on multiples. Think the option expiration last week hold the stock back. It also seems like the analysts don't believe they can produce this kind of earnings going forward.

Google got hit bad in the Nasdaq sell-off. I would get aggressively longer on any further weakness as it is trading at a PEG under 1, very bullish for the stock, historically.

Portfolio Update

December Silver expired with a nice profit, even though it continued a bit after expiration. As for Crude, it seems that I have been on the right side of the trade so far. I think we could see some upwards momentum going forward from here, I don't regard $65 as unlikely during the winter months. LMC, BOLI and PARE have all been phenomenal lately. Boliden has really played out nice as a fundamental case, up some more than 40% since the position was initiated not long ago. The stock is still not expensive based on next year's estimates with a P/E well below 10. The company also seems more shareholder friendly now with a big dividend coming next year. I don't like to sell BOLI under SEK 200. Pare, my largest holding, closed on a new ATH on Friday. I hope to be able to be a bit more active in my trading than I have been able to be lately although the holidays are closing in.