Re-Positioning

Interesting times. Took some profits in Silver as the price is up roughly 10% on the first day of SLV trading (CNBC have been touting every day how Gold went down when GLD was listed, so this one was given), sold half my position. Goldman Sachs is down hard here, without any real news. The company is attractively valued, taking the opportunity to sell the JUN 150 Put. For the premium (yeah I know, it is not like the money is in the bank or anything) I'm buying GOOG MAY 43o Call, another contrarian play. The stock's been going down every day since the blow-out quarter (at least it feels that way). Betting on a fast recovery next week there. Also today bought back LUPE cheaper. How quick the market forget that oil is trading above $7o! Increased position in PARE, news should be start coming from that company any time now. Don't want to go 'all-in' in the oils here, as Crude is so volatile at the moment.

Long Silver

Going long silver again, as the listing should be imminent. Scaling in very carefully.

Taking Profit

Covering Crude here as I don't see any real following through here after Bush's speech. Might have been too early, but a profit is a profit.

Update

Markets lower today in general. The thesis about equities and commodities (oil) retreating was correct. Closed out the short Dow position too early though. Sitting on a nice (unrealized) profit in Crude. Glad I covered the long USD as the currency is still showing strength here. Panic selling in oil stocks as Crude is coming down. Easy to forget oil is still well above $70/barrel. Won't add to any positions before the number though. Google's weak hear, as it the market. Might soon be time to go long Silver again, as the listing should be very close in time.

USD

Closing the long USD position as we see some strength today. Realizing a loss.

Closing One Position

Covering the short in YM with small profit.

A Contrarian Play

As the markets seems to be stretched, I'm trying a contrarian play:

- Short WTI Crude
- Short Dow Jones
- Long USD vs. EUR

GOOG Puts

Expired OTM. Was never really worried.

The Fundamental Case for GOOG

It goes like this: earning will be revised up to $10 this year. Apply a conservative growth of 30%, with a PEG-ratio of 2 we get a $600 target. (I've borrowed from Cramer here).

The stock were trading close to $450 after hours. At $438 it is a dissapointment, the stock is getting affected by the 1.2% decline in the Nasdaq 100.

Google is a high beta stock (although Yahoo Finance says 0.1, which must mean a really low correlation with the market (as it is not lacking volatility). Will check this number another time). If the market turns ugly, it will not be fun to own Google.

Staying long.

A (very) Good Trade and a Bad Trade

Shorting silver was the best short-term trade so far recorded on this blog. Just closed out the last bit of the position. What a ride!

Selling LUPE was wrong, commodities and especially crude is very strong here, topping $75 on the June contract.

Pullback

Taking profits in LUPE, closing out position. Awaiting pullback.

Staying on the Right Side of the Trade

Going short silver here as we see some weakness after a very long run, just to see how far down we go on this move. Might very well go long today again.

Can't Stomach It Anymore...

... couldn't keep my fingers away from the sell button any longer, it is very hard to pyramid a position. Took some off the table in Silver as the metal is up over 5% today alone. The crude ETF started trading today and the commodity is up over 2%. We can see more explosive action in Silver when the ETF finally is listed, which should be any day now. Not sure I did the right thing. Still long Silver though.

Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda

... is an expression borrowed from Cramer. Was contemplating Thursday night if this was not the time to get contrarian, short some Nasdaq futures and go long some Dollar cross. You can't win them all, there's always another trade. Think commodity and equity markets could be weak for a few more days, middle next week might be the time to put more money into the oils and the market. Silver held even yesterday, seems like it will stay strong until we get the listing announcement, then it might be time to take some profits, in the middle of the hype. Staying long for now.

Google

Some triggers for the stock:

CL2
Gdrive
GBuy
Google Music
Interactive TV

The last two are the more speculative, while the rest is more or less confirmed.

Commodities

Increased PARE position as the stock's lagging the oil price. Waiting for down days in crude to increase position further (buy on weakness). Silver continues its path, crossing $12 for the May contract for the first time. Staying long.

Lose Some, Win Some

Took a terrible hit on TPEP today, a calculated bet that failed. In other markets silver is still unbelievably strong, down during Asian trading but back in positive territory now. Even crude is holding nice, even tough a correction was expected after a run like this. Would wait until after the inventory numbers come out to add to the oils position. Google was just breaking up above $400, slightly below right now. This is despite more bashing of the stock, this time from the Motley Fool.

Tripep

The company is reporting that the study was a failure. Will sell the stock during the day.