This morning as crude was down big after yesterday's big drop, which was the biggest decline since August last year, I bought the December contract. Below $58 crude should be bought. The contract traded down to $57.025 just after I got in. CNBC was talking about how OPEC can't be trusted, how the weather is not as cold as expected etc. In a remarkable turn-around crude is now trading at $58.7. Once again this strategy seems to be paying off.
I started scaling back in my Nordnet holding today as the stock was showing some strength.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Friday, October 27, 2006
Taking Some Off the Table
Sold positions in GS and TTM late yesterday. Got an average around $192 for GS and $19.64 for TTM. I still regard both stocks as undervalued but wanted to take some profits. With today's action it turned out to be the right decision. Of course a high-beta stock like GOOG falls here after the run-up. Crude should be bought under $60, and it could have been done today.
Nordnet reported the other day. After listening to the conference call one has to reconsider the stock. Q4 will certainly be stronger than the last quarter, but I will get out of the stock in any strength. I regard Nordnet as one of the big disappointment in my portfolio. Commission will put pressure on the company's margins in the time to come at the same time a market like Germany seems to disappoint.
Nordnet reported the other day. After listening to the conference call one has to reconsider the stock. Q4 will certainly be stronger than the last quarter, but I will get out of the stock in any strength. I regard Nordnet as one of the big disappointment in my portfolio. Commission will put pressure on the company's margins in the time to come at the same time a market like Germany seems to disappoint.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
A Trade and Some Thoughts
Covered my short Dec S&P futures at the 1384 level, maybe not an optimal trade but didn't like that my short position dragged on for so long.
Crude is up big here. My playbook was to go long if the market showed some weakness today after the numbers. Now the strategy should be to go long on any weakness.
Pare exploded up today more than 10% after they released some news from Tunisia as I expected they would do and wrote here earlier. I think this is only the beginning of a re-valuation of the stock, more news could also be on the way soon.
Google recently set a new all time high above $480. As with Pare, I believe the stock has further to go. I believe one of the most exciting news could be close to prime time. Gdrive (or Patypus as it is called internally at Google) maybe be near launch.
Crude is up big here. My playbook was to go long if the market showed some weakness today after the numbers. Now the strategy should be to go long on any weakness.
Pare exploded up today more than 10% after they released some news from Tunisia as I expected they would do and wrote here earlier. I think this is only the beginning of a re-valuation of the stock, more news could also be on the way soon.
Google recently set a new all time high above $480. As with Pare, I believe the stock has further to go. I believe one of the most exciting news could be close to prime time. Gdrive (or Patypus as it is called internally at Google) maybe be near launch.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
GOOG
Google just reported a blowout quarter, and is trading up towards $460 right now in the after hours trading.
Market Update
Apple is up huge after the earnings report, closing in on $80. I have been writing a lot about the stock on this blog lately.
I will stay with my S&P 500 short for some time longer as market has a way of turning around right after options expiration.
Every time crude is trading below $58 we get a spike up, no difference this time. My Swedish commodity stocks are all up nicely. Especially PARE and BOLI. I expect PARE to release new information to the market any time now. Silver is up nice, now trading over $12/ounce.
A stock that is keeping one of my portfolios down is Nordnet. Bank of America just launch a zero commission service for the US market and a Swedish paper is reporting that Saxo Bank has done the same in Denmark. This is probably what is keeping the stock down. I am waiting for the earnings report, due in one weeks time.
Google is reporting in 1 hour time, and is up ahead.
I will stay with my S&P 500 short for some time longer as market has a way of turning around right after options expiration.
Every time crude is trading below $58 we get a spike up, no difference this time. My Swedish commodity stocks are all up nicely. Especially PARE and BOLI. I expect PARE to release new information to the market any time now. Silver is up nice, now trading over $12/ounce.
A stock that is keeping one of my portfolios down is Nordnet. Bank of America just launch a zero commission service for the US market and a Swedish paper is reporting that Saxo Bank has done the same in Denmark. This is probably what is keeping the stock down. I am waiting for the earnings report, due in one weeks time.
Google is reporting in 1 hour time, and is up ahead.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Decline
We got the biggest decline in over a month in the S&P 500. Looking to close out position today or tomorrow.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Hedging
Putting on a new play, shorting the December S&P 500 future in a contrarian move. Executing at the 1374 level. The market is due for a down move here...
Very good action in Silver lately. Also Crude is moving higher, so far $58 seems to be the bottom.
Very good action in Silver lately. Also Crude is moving higher, so far $58 seems to be the bottom.
Monday, October 09, 2006
Calling a Bottom
The sentiment seems to have a changed in the oil market. We now got several bullish factors going forward:
- New developments in regards to North Korea
- Opec are cutting production, defending the price
- Apparently new storms are on the way
- Winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere
Seems like $58 could have been the bottom, some $20 dollars from the top. Assuming the price overshot as much in both directions, a fair price would be $68...
In other news Google is ramping up quickly on the YouTube rumors, which might very well be true. GS, TTM and my energy stocks are all doing very well right here. Wish I had increased the Silver position while it was trading below $11 last week.
- New developments in regards to North Korea
- Opec are cutting production, defending the price
- Apparently new storms are on the way
- Winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere
Seems like $58 could have been the bottom, some $20 dollars from the top. Assuming the price overshot as much in both directions, a fair price would be $68...
In other news Google is ramping up quickly on the YouTube rumors, which might very well be true. GS, TTM and my energy stocks are all doing very well right here. Wish I had increased the Silver position while it was trading below $11 last week.
Monday, October 02, 2006
According to Plan
We are seeing a washout in crude in progress, might continue for a couple of days. Sold the Nasdaq futures very near the top. Silver has been holding up so far. Looks like an opportunity in Apple is closing in...
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