Thursday, March 22, 2007

Less Than One Week

GS from under $200 to $210. WFR from under $50 during the sell-off to over $60. MPEL from under $15 to briefly over $17. I am sure the combination of expiration pinning and the market sell-off made many capitulate at the worst possible time. This is exactly how the market machine rakes in. With S&P trading at 1434 and change all this is a lesson in the fallacy of the wait-and-see-until-it-stabilizes-attitude that is so common not least in the media. Over and over the big moves tends to come at the bottom and the big risk is to be on the sidelines at those very moments. All this this should quantified.

On the Crude side of things, the expiration was quite dramatic. With contango we are now trading above $61 again! As written here recently, when Silver was trading below $13, the trade is on the long side. I would also like to point out the ongoing inventory situation in Copper.

On the portfolio side one notes the huge move in Lupe today.

The good thing is: There is always another trade.

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