Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Market Strategy

The theme for crude has quickly shifted to sell on strength to buy on weakness. As the March contract is up at the $55 level, the time to buy was at the expiry of the Feb contract. Cold weather and doubling of US reserves created a short squeeze in today's trading. The tell that the shorts was building positions was that the open interest was increasing during the steep sell off (as noted in earlier posts). Once again the turn-around seems to happen right around the expiry. Of course the media is always backward looking and outlets such as CNBC was speculating about oil in the 30ish when crude was at the bottom. Thus it seems that Goldman and Deutsche were right on their 'doubling down' thesis. Looking at commodities at large one might be surprised to see such strength in silver, gold, natural gas, as well as many softs.

Lunding mining was up close to 5% in today's US session. I am anticipating similar follow thru across the board in Stockholm tomorrow.

Yahoo just reported, the stock is up in after-hours trading. The results should be analysed for tells about Google. On another note; as video is the next frontier of the Intenet and online ads, Google should buy Joost as soon as possible. The business logic behind eBay's buyout of Skype is very questionable. However a Joost takeover makes a lot of sense and would make Google more valuable (as well as Joost).

On the sideline, I am eying a FX trade.

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