Digging for Gold

Buying the GS Mar 200 call for $13.70 as the stock is selling off from record levels at around $220. The stock is cheap, and I will average down if the stock comes down further.

Crude is up over 4% right here as what looks like short covering. My firm believe is that the contract should be accumulated under $55.

Buying on Dip

Staying true to the strategy and buying the March Crude future at $54.575.

Quite a Day

Sentiment has definitely shifted in the oil patch. It is getting much colder in the northeast US very soon as the winter already arrived in Europe. Fundamentally it is questionable how much it should affect the prices, but on a psychological level it does matter. The strategy of buying at dips is working. The time to buy today was right after the numbers were release when WTI was down some 1.5%. We ended the day up, well above $55.

GS is really breaking up here, posting a new ATH today. Fundamentally this stock has to be bought on dips. A strategy would be to get long Deep-In-the-Money calls.

Google crossing $500 after hours, getting the last push from eBay's report.

As for the major equity indices, I would not get long at current levels.

We are finally seeing some weakness in USD, something I have been looking for lately for a contrarian trade.

Market Strategy

The theme for crude has quickly shifted to sell on strength to buy on weakness. As the March contract is up at the $55 level, the time to buy was at the expiry of the Feb contract. Cold weather and doubling of US reserves created a short squeeze in today's trading. The tell that the shorts was building positions was that the open interest was increasing during the steep sell off (as noted in earlier posts). Once again the turn-around seems to happen right around the expiry. Of course the media is always backward looking and outlets such as CNBC was speculating about oil in the 30ish when crude was at the bottom. Thus it seems that Goldman and Deutsche were right on their 'doubling down' thesis. Looking at commodities at large one might be surprised to see such strength in silver, gold, natural gas, as well as many softs.

Lunding mining was up close to 5% in today's US session. I am anticipating similar follow thru across the board in Stockholm tomorrow.

Yahoo just reported, the stock is up in after-hours trading. The results should be analysed for tells about Google. On another note; as video is the next frontier of the Intenet and online ads, Google should buy Joost as soon as possible. The business logic behind eBay's buyout of Skype is very questionable. However a Joost takeover makes a lot of sense and would make Google more valuable (as well as Joost).

On the sideline, I am eying a FX trade.

Closing a Position

Crude is up here and I am closing out the position as I am not convinced we have seen the bottom.

The Good and the Bad

Google at $500 and above in after hours. The stock getting fueled not only by the tech rally but also by Goldman's bullish comments. Also the Swedish holdings having a good rebound, up between 5 to 10% across the line.

Apple is really taking off on the iPhone news. The time to buy was clearly before Macworld which also was considered at the time, but the question is as always what is price in and not and the probability of this or that happen. A priori not a given trade to make. The valuation seems rich, the strategy should be to let the stock come in. Especially since there is quite a bit of time before the release. Apple TV is somewhat overlooked by the media, the only disappointment there is the lack of Google integration.

Goldman Sachs has left the $200 level where it has been at for some time. This is a name to keep an eye on in a market sell-off.

The bad is the energy sell-off where I put in a sell order as the market was up about 10 seconds too late, just to see the future down some $2 in short time. I haven't been following the open interest, but have heard there has been an increase which suggest speculative shorts at play.

Taking Profit

Covered my short Mar S&P futures at 1417. It is not easy to make money on the short side in this market...

Market Update

A tech rally is underway. Google is one stock that became way too cheap in the 450:s, where it should have been bought heavily. Gdrive and iTV will likely be the big announcements of Q1.

Otherwise the big news is Crude which is tough to be long during a record warm winter in the northern hemisphere. The weather should be priced in already. I think it would be wrong to sell during this shake-out.

Pare has had a fantastic rally up to over SEK 70 before this pull-back. I am waiting for a release from the company before I trim my position.

GS seems to be pinned at $200. Could be a good case for put writing as I don't see much downside trading at P/E 10.

I have been eyeing EURJPY that was trading at record levels and should have been shorted in a contrarian move, I was however more focused on other markets.

Putting on a Hedge

Sold the Mar S&P future this morning as we saw a heavy sell of in Asia. Yesterday mostly Nasdaq was selling off in the US. I am normally very careful shorting the market as there are so many odds working against you.

Been comfortable long crude (which I rolled over to Feb contract), I would be careful before this weeks number though. As the market might not want to get surprise once more, plus we have the warm weather.

Yesterday I was on the sell side of Lupe as the stock was up big and this is the name that feels closest to the exit. However my offer wasn't hit. I got in the stock believing that this 'blue chip' oil would be a reasonable safe bet on energy, and also given the fantastic track-record. The risks the company shouldn't be ignored.

Would buy back GS here, they reported a record quarter and the company is cheap based on multiples. Think the option expiration last week hold the stock back. It also seems like the analysts don't believe they can produce this kind of earnings going forward.

Google got hit bad in the Nasdaq sell-off. I would get aggressively longer on any further weakness as it is trading at a PEG under 1, very bullish for the stock, historically.

Portfolio Update

December Silver expired with a nice profit, even though it continued a bit after expiration. As for Crude, it seems that I have been on the right side of the trade so far. I think we could see some upwards momentum going forward from here, I don't regard $65 as unlikely during the winter months. LMC, BOLI and PARE have all been phenomenal lately. Boliden has really played out nice as a fundamental case, up some more than 40% since the position was initiated not long ago. The stock is still not expensive based on next year's estimates with a P/E well below 10. The company also seems more shareholder friendly now with a big dividend coming next year. I don't like to sell BOLI under SEK 200. Pare, my largest holding, closed on a new ATH on Friday. I hope to be able to be a bit more active in my trading than I have been able to be lately although the holidays are closing in.

Market Update

My S&P puts expired with a profit at $5. Google is flying past $500 and is currently up some 2.71% in today's market. Many of the stocks on my watch list, such as WYNN, GS, MA, AAPL, NYX, HANS are all moving up fast here. I was bidding on Crude yesterday at $58.00. The January contract was trading at $57.75 only minutes before, however I missed that trade although I am still long the contract. Metal, oil and commodity stocks are all up big right here. We are seeing colder weather now in the US.

Two Trades

Rolled over the December contract in Crude to January. Bought the SPX Put with the 1405 strike and expiration tomorrow. Payed $4.7. A pure speculation play.

Two All Time Highs and More

My two biggest holdings both made all time highs today. PARE ended the session at it highest point SEK 58. The stock is playing out perfectly according to plan. There should be a lot more to come its way. Google was very close to break the $500 barrier intraday, but ended the day at slightly above $390. Fundamentally I strongly believe that the stock could go to $600.

Silver made a turn-around today, ending up after being down in the morning. Crude also showed some strength after the inventory data. US is still very warm, but that could change quick.

The two big disappointments in the portfolio both belongs to the Lundin sphere, namely LUMI and LUPE. Today I switched Lumi to LMC for purely technical reasons. The stock is getting hurt by the price of Copper which is not as bullish as Zinc. I might average down on this position going forward. LUPE I have view as a proxy for Crude which has been a mistake. I don't like to sell it down here and it very well could be that the company wants to give the market a bearish picture in order to surprise to the upside in the future.

A Very Good Day

Pare and Lumi up over 6% each today, Boli up almost 4% as commodities find new strength. Goog is up over 1%.

I sold my last Nordnet at 21.90.

Waiting for pull-back to go in heavier in equities.

A Comeback

LUMI.ST is back in the portfolio. I bought them yesterday in Stockholm before Cramer's buy recommendation was widely known in the market. The stock is fundamentally very attractive and I like its zinc exposure.

A Very Healthy Market

Today's sell-off comes one day after the end of the fiscal year for mutual funds, maybe not a coincident. The selling of GS and TTM turned out to have been done at a remarkable good time. GS was down over 2% today and TTM has been down big since I closed out the position. Continued to scale back in Nordnet today as the stock showed some strength.

Crude and Silver are strong here. Crude was up big at one time today after the inventory data.

Tomorrow I might add a new position in Stockholm, a certain urgency is related to arbitrage issues.

Risk-Taking Paying Off

This morning as crude was down big after yesterday's big drop, which was the biggest decline since August last year, I bought the December contract. Below $58 crude should be bought. The contract traded down to $57.025 just after I got in. CNBC was talking about how OPEC can't be trusted, how the weather is not as cold as expected etc. In a remarkable turn-around crude is now trading at $58.7. Once again this strategy seems to be paying off.

I started scaling back in my Nordnet holding today as the stock was showing some strength.

Taking Some Off the Table

Sold positions in GS and TTM late yesterday. Got an average around $192 for GS and $19.64 for TTM. I still regard both stocks as undervalued but wanted to take some profits. With today's action it turned out to be the right decision. Of course a high-beta stock like GOOG falls here after the run-up. Crude should be bought under $60, and it could have been done today.

Nordnet reported the other day. After listening to the conference call one has to reconsider the stock. Q4 will certainly be stronger than the last quarter, but I will get out of the stock in any strength. I regard Nordnet as one of the big disappointment in my portfolio. Commission will put pressure on the company's margins in the time to come at the same time a market like Germany seems to disappoint.

A Trade and Some Thoughts

Covered my short Dec S&P futures at the 1384 level, maybe not an optimal trade but didn't like that my short position dragged on for so long.

Crude is up big here. My playbook was to go long if the market showed some weakness today after the numbers. Now the strategy should be to go long on any weakness.

Pare exploded up today more than 10% after they released some news from Tunisia as I expected they would do and wrote here earlier. I think this is only the beginning of a re-valuation of the stock, more news could also be on the way soon.

Google recently set a new all time high above $480. As with Pare, I believe the stock has further to go. I believe one of the most exciting news could be close to prime time. Gdrive (or Patypus as it is called internally at Google) maybe be near launch.

GOOG

Google just reported a blowout quarter, and is trading up towards $460 right now in the after hours trading.